Last night, a few disparate blog discussions caused me to have an interesting thought: Is it possible that Turkey could be the catalyst that will cause Microsoft to finally get tablets right…?
In order to understand where I’m coming from, consider the following recent discussions.
<> Sales figures are never very easy to track down, but one recent website pegged the number of iPads sold as of early June, 2011, at ~25 million. ( See: http://ipadinsight.com/ipad-news/apple-announces-more-than-25-million-ipads-sold-since-launch )
<> There’s been a lot of discussion in recent months that Microsoft really has to get the tablet features of Windows 8 right. After years of talking the tabletPC talk but treating tablet features as a stepchild add-on to the basic Windows code (or pretty much ignoring it altogether; I’m looking at you, Office Team!), the iPad’s marketplace success has put the ball firmly back in Microsoft’s court. It’s time to walk the tabletPC walk… or concede the leadership to Apple and be a minor player forever. An interesting Ars Technica article about this was brought to light by JustAnotherDave in the Asus / EP121 Slate forum at TabletPCReview. (See: http://arstechnica.com/microsoft/news/2011/08/a-sort-of-pc-how-windows-8-will-invade-tablets-and-why-it-might-work.ars/1 )
<> Finally, Engadget recently reported that Turkey might issue an invitation for Apple and Microsoft to bid on an order for 15 Million tablets for Turkey’s educational system! I find this mind-boggling on a number of levels. First, the sheer size of this possible order. Second, kudos to Turkey for putting this kind of emphasis on the value of education to their citizens. We all know that fancy electronics alone are no guarantee of scholastic excellence, but if Turkey can provide the right kind of supporting environment, their nation may reap a huge benefit. (See: http://www.engadget.com/2011/08/20/apple-microsoft-meet-with-turkish-minister-may-bid-to-supply-1/ )
Hmmm. So what am I thinking?
Just this: Assuming that Turkey decides to place this order, whoever wins it will instantly capture a huge share of the tablet market. If it turns out to be Apple, they will dominate the tablet marketplace in the same way that Microsoft used to dominate the computer marketplace. However, if it is Microsoft, they will instantly achieve near-parity with Apple! Something that it would otherwise take them years to achieve! My question is: “What might Microsoft be motivated to do to achieve such a result?”
In order to win, Microsoft is going to have to offer a tablet that beats the iPad on its own terms. Is it possible that Microsoft might finally bite the bullet and seriously undertake the overhaul of Windows’ and Office’s tablet features that we’ve all been begging for? Incorporate the Intel shell software that allows iPad-like responsiveness? Pair this with a properly-designed hardware platform that complements the new software features? In short, is it possible that this order might cause Microsoft to finally, seriously, design the tablet that they’ve always talked about? I think the possibilities here might be huge, but only time will tell.
What do you think..???
I think it’s a lost cause for them. The blew the tablet opportunity. They couldn’t get on the same page. They couldn’t even sell the concept internally. Apple came along and wiped the floor with them right out of the gate by doing what we all told them they had to do years ago – build an OS and apps with the tablet form factor in mind from birth.
The whole running on top of Windows thing was a good option back in the early days when there would have been no tablet apps. But they never led the charge with tablet-specific apps the way Apple did. They couldn’t rally developers because those developers would go broke trying to prop up a system Microsoft couldn’t even unite behind.
Finally, Apple has proven that when it comes to hardware, choice sucks. The old model of shipping an OS to a variety of OEM’s is simply a losing model. The OEM’s have no interest in the long term success of Microsoft’s tablet strategy. They just want to make payroll in an industry with razor-thin margins and in doing so they crap up every machine they make and skimp on parts and materials. (I’m giving Motion Computing a pass here, their LE1600 was a thing of beauty.)
In order for Microsoft to get people to pay attention to their tablets, there needs to be a reason for me to put down my iPad for a second and take notice. At this point, the damned thing would have to make me breakfast for me to even consider it.
[...] posted a response to Rob Bushway’s post: 15 million tablets; What might Microsoft do? I vented a bit of my frustration with how Microsoft has totally blown their leadership position in [...]
See: http://josheinstein.com/blog/index.php/2011/08/re-15-million-tablets-what-might-microsoft-do/
“…I think it’s a lost cause for them…”
Hi, Josh: I certainly understand that you have a special perspective from which to judge Microsoft’s chances for success (or lack of success), but I don’t think they can be counted out quite yet. For one thing, size still counts for something, and Microsoft continues to hold the high ground there. In addition, there is a distinction between the functionality that a tabletPC provides relative to an iPad.
I think the question is, and always has been, can Microsoft find the will to make the sweeping changes that are necessary? They haven’t been able to do that in the open marketplace, but the Turkey offer, if it comes, might be the perfect, contained environment to let them shake off their inhibitions…
I have a two-pronged opinion.
First, let me stipulate that I don’t think that Microsoft can do this, because they just don’t have the will to do something as single-minded as this. Everything that MS does, they do with a mind toward hyper-integration with the rest of the flock. Therefore, everything is overengineered and bloated. Plus, time-to-market is measured in decades instead of months.
Second, if they did try, they would have to own the platform. Period. I agree with Josh in this respect. There is already available OK software for iPad and Android for office productivity, but if MS could/would release tablet versions of MS Office that is totally crossfunctional and integrated with Sharepoint and other MS collaborative features, it would probably be a big hit. BUT (and it is a big BUT), MS would never do it because they would not be able to charge confiscatory amounts of money for the software. Just look at how much they ask for a volume license copy of Office. 98% of users of Office need basic word processing, basic spreadsheets and Outlook. Most tablet versions have more features than the majority of Office users needs.
And, number 2.5 (sorry Jeffrey Gitomer) Microsoft needs a righteous, RDS Gateway compatible version of an RDS (nee TS) client. The fact that they have not created one as of yet is criminal (at least criminal from the perspective of a Microsoft stockholder.)
Randy
MS office is the key. When he had the oppertunity, Bill Gates should have sent the “extermintors” into the Office team and confiscated all mice any keboards, Leaving tablets in thier place. Untill the office team uses touch and pen they will not understand it. (They do not need to embace or accept or love touch/ink htey just need to make it usable.)
MS lost the opprtunity to really push OEMs to tweak to Win7 setting for touch. A METRO based overlay should have been released.
I am afraid that Win 8 is too late. Hope not.